Categories
Markets & Economy

Sell in March before the Crunch or throw the towel in May and go away!

As I have indicated in my last market’s assessment on February 9th 2018 “ For the moment the markets are healthy and the American economy is doing well but he steepest drops are yet to come. “ I don’t think that the market has seen yet its lows for now on the 9th of February 2018 for the twice 1000.00 points drops in early February, how about 2000.00 points sell offs or higher, this will not have investors to smile about the market’s volatility.

From now on I am concerned about the 3rd and 4th quarter rate hikes and the overall market highs this will send the market to volatility, I am reassessing and selling my portfolio, I feel that my stock picks have done incredibly well since April 17th 2015, I will be buying and shorting selected equities and to keep some cash for some future buying opportunities when the market’s insanity will take place.

The fear is that the inflation rise will force the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to raise the interest rates to cool the economy off as Consumer confidence hit a new 17-year high in February by ending the nice ride for both the Dow and the S&P have seen 10-month winning streaks, while the Nasdaq had gained for seven straight months, the S&P 500 had reach a 15-month streak of gains, the longest such stretch in its history of this bull market in stocks that has seen its rise since March 2009.

As long as the Fed will not raise the rates to an aggressive level that will cause a recession the market will do fine but I don’t see this from happening this way because over all we are due for a market correction and according to me it looks like the market is running out of steam and the indication from the Federal Reserve to turn more hawkish and increase corporate borrowing costs to possibly raise interest rates four times in 2018 and keep in mind that the U.S. economy will remain the world’s strongest.

Keith Mabtoul.

March 08 2018

Categories
Markets & Economy Stock Analysis

Healthy technical U.S. stock market’s consolidation since early 2016 pullback

After a smooth market ride for nearly nine years, investors have faced a sudden drop in U.S. stocks sent the Dow Jones industrial average down more than 1,000 points Thursday for the second time of the week this plunge was the second-biggest ever in terms of points that stocks saw a short dip before the markets closed, while on a percentage basis,  Monday’s drop was the largest since August 2011 according to S&P Dow Jones Indices, The 3.75 percent decline pushed the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index down more than 10 percent from the Dow’s last peak was January 26 and not to forget the markets had experienced a pullback in early 2016 and continued its rise especially after the new administration in the White House.

 

This means the market is technically in a healthy consolidation and does not mean that the bull market in stocks is over for its rise since March 2009, for this reason I can’t call this correction as the steepest drop in the history of the Dow Jones the latest drop in the Dow places the 30 company average into a correction what Wall Street calls a drop of 10 percent or more from an index’s recent peak. It’s the first correction in almost two years in comparison with the Dow’s steepest one-day percentage drop came on October 19, 1987 on “Black Monday”, when it fell 22.6 percent.

 

As I have mentioned in my post on August 4, 2017  that The Dow Industrials breached the 22,000 level for the first time ever on Wednesday to continue on its highs for next 3 quarters on average before a new correction will take place.  https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/dow-hits-22000-its-121-year-history-first-time-ever-keith-mabtoul?articleId=6299074355359997952#comments-6299074355359997952&trk=prof-post

 

For the moment the markets are healthy and the American economy is doing well but he steepest drops are yet to come.

 

Keith Mabtoul.

February 11th 2018

Categories
Markets & Economy

Dow hits a fresh milestone, closer to 22000 and what’s next ?

Dow-Jones-record-high-of-21,990.96-August-01-2017

YES The DOW is going to have more upward above 22000.00 marks and the U.S. stocks are looking strong to me continuing their gains for the next 3 quarters on average, for the time being the Dow Jones industrial average (DJIA) approached another 22,000 milestone intraday record high of 21,988 this morning at a significant new high at midday, the S&P 500 list SPX, +0.21% climbed 0.3% at 2,477, also close to an intraday level of 2,484.04 while the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.15% rose 0.4% at 6,375, touching a new record, strong earnings have been at the core of the current uptrend. from last Friday.
August 01 2017

Keith Mabtoul
Capital Research Management

Categories
Markets & Economy

Markets assessments

We will have a sluggish short term market environment as we continue toward the second (2) leg of an economic Depression while the Greek crises gets more European funding to keep the European Unity.

The commodities will continue their short term corrections factor as Iran will be adding more oil supply to the Oil markets, to mention that Gold has hit its 5 years low at $1,094.00 on July 23 2015.

The markets will improve in the second half of the year as the US economy gets stronger leading the way, the american markets will go much higher for the DJIA reaching an average high north of 19,000,00 Points.

The Chinese markets will go higher from these 30% lows of this summer 2015, the Chinese economy will see a modest GDP decrease as the domestic growth will go on for a medium term appeasement.
With that said I remain sceptical about the Chinese over heating economy and the level of bad debts and speculations to the point that I strongly believe that will lead the Chinese markets will be facing a hard landing in the second half of 2022 or earlier turning the worldwide stocks markets crush dragging down mainly the commodities producing countries, I will keep you informed.

K. Mabtoul.
July,23, 2015